Global Warming Effects on Hawai'i

UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII STUDY: 

TEMPERATURES GO OFF THE CHARTS AROUND 2047

CLIMATE PANEL FORECAST: HIGHER SEAS, TEMPERATURES

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Starting in about a decade, Kingston, Jamaica, will probably be off-the-charts hot - permanently. Other places will soon follow. Singapore in 2028. Mexico City in 2031. Cairo in 2036. Phoenix and Honolulu in 2043.  THE EFFECTS WILL BE GRADUAL, OVER YEARS BUT DRAMATIC AND DEVESTATING.

And eventually the whole world in 2047.  "One can think of this year as a kind of threshold into a hot new world from which one never goes back," said Carnegie Institution climate scientist Chris Field, who was not part of the study. "This is really dramatic."

And for dozens of cities, mostly in the tropics LIKE HONOLULU, those dates are a generation or less away.  Eventually, the coldest year in a particular city or region will be hotter than the hottest year in its past.

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Video: Hawaii PBS "Global Warming and Hawaii" - April 2013

For example, the world as a whole had its hottest year on record in 2005. The new study, published Wednesday in the journal Nature, says that by the year 2047, every year that follows will probably be hotter than that record-setting scorcher.

The first U.S. cities to feel that would be Honolulu and Phoenix, followed by San Diego and Orlando, Fla., in 2046. New York and Washington will get new climates around 2047, with Los Angeles, Detroit, Houston, Chicago, Seattle, Austin and Dallas a bit later.

mora-map

The seesaw variability of global temperatures often engenders debate over how seriously we should take climate change. But within 35 years, even the lowest monthly dips in temperatures will be hotter than we’ve experienced in the past 150 years, according to a new and massive analysis of all climate models. The tropics will be the first to exceed the limits of historical extremes and experience an unabated heat wave that threatens biodiversity and heavily populated countries with the fewest resources to adapt.

University of Hawaii "Global Warming Hawaii" October 9, 2013 in the journal Nature -  Summary by AUDREY McAVOY (AP) June 3, 2013

The new index shows a surprising result. Areas in the tropics are projected to experience unprecedented climates first within the next decade.  This raises concerns for changes in the supply of food and water, human health, wider spread of infectious diseases, heat stress, conflicts and challenges to economies  

The study found that the overarching global effect of climate change on biodiversity will occur not only as a result of the largest absolute changes at the poles, but also, perhaps more urgently, from small but rapid changes in the tropics.

“The results shocked us. Regardless of the scenario, changes will be coming soon,” said lead author Mora. “Within my generation, whatever climate we were used to will be a thing of the past.”

Pennsylvania State University climate scientist Michael Mann said "by some measures, we are already there".

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"Humanity faces near certainty of eventual sea level rise of at least Eemian proportions, 30-50 feet (in the next 100 years), if fossil fuel emissions continue on a business-as-usual course, e.g.,  It is unlikely that coastal cities or low-lying areas such as Bangladesh, European lowlands, and large portions of the United States eastern coast and northeast China plains  could be protected against such large sea level rise. Rapid large sea level rise may begin sooner than generally assumed.  Storms conjoin with sea level rise to cause the most devastating coastal damage. 


Effects of freshwater injection and resulting ocean stratification are occurring sooner in the real world than in our model. There are many other practical impacts of continued high fossil fuel emissions via climate change and ocean acidification, including irreplaceable loss of many species.  We conclude that the 2 ◦C global warming “guardrail”, affirmed in the Copenhagen Accord (2009), does not provide safety, as such warming would likely yield sea level rise of several meters along with numerous other severely disruptive consequences for human society and ecosystems.  


The message that the climate science delivers to policymakers, instead of defining a safe “guardrail”, is that fossil fuel CO2 emissions must be reduced as rapidly as practical.   It is also clear that continued high emissions are likely to lock-in continued global energy imbalance, ocean warming, ice sheet disintegration, and large sea level rise, which young people and future generations would not be able to avoid. Given the inertia of the climate and energy systems, and the grave threat posed by continued high emissions, the matter is urgent and calls for emergency cooperation among nations."